Get in now. Christmas is coming. So are 4th quarter earnings from Christmas sales. Apple ain't going under. They're the only company that turned a profit....And AAPL is beginning its re-entry phase back to earth from its journey to the moon.
It depends on the effort and risk. 10% profit might do it. If I could invest $5,000 and come back with $5,500 in my pocket and didn't really spend that much time on it, I would consider it. But unless it can make that $500 in a week or two, it's really not worth much.define reasonable profit.
How much in losses did you factor in?i knew there would be a comment. i had pretty good run on apple. i held my last buy too long and ended up selling it at basis instead of a gain.
out of curiosity, i ran a quick excel table to see how momentum trading might work out over a year vs buy and hold.
i took a theoretical $X,XXX nest-egg and dunked it into an imaginary stock that would rise and fall with the market, similar to what i've seen in recent history. i tried various amounts (as high as $50,000 for my model purposes) to see the impact of trade costs on the return ($10 each trade, so $20 in&out). i found that if i could make a 2% gain per trade, once per month, then reinvest the proceeds in a similar trade each month, the annual return would be over 26% (2% per month + compounding), or about 14% on a 1% per trade. seems simple enough. obviously taxes pull a chunk out, but it still seems better than a savng account. find a stock that has a decent stability (or a bit undervalued, with a recent upward trend), then buy on bad news and sell into the rally. in the last year, the market seems supportive of this kind of game.
understood. i wanted to quantify "the best" in this case so i could contrast against buy-and-hold. my calc was based on curiosity and theory, to find the upper limits and get a sense of sensitivity. YMMV.Always plan for the worst. Hope for the best.