I just had a look at Littermag's walk of the course with Jared Rando, http://www.vitalmtb.com/photos/features/09-World-Champs-DH-Track-Walk,183/Slideshow,1425/sspomer,2. Lots of smooth berms and jumps, the rock garden looks pretty tame, there's no steep rooty section, and I see a lot of flattish pedaling sections. I'd say Lopes has a good chance and you know he's been training like crazy and really wants this.