[stoney]

This one is worth it's own post. COVID could be handled in a manner that was much more controlled for the economy (look at the rest of the world). Both had major economic events during their presidencies (housing market and Great Recession vs. COVID). Trump came into a market and economy that was strong and going up; Obama came into a market and economy that was going down.

But my 401(k) means dick all of shit. That argument is bullshit and can be thrown away like the garbage is was known to be.

...market performance from Inauguration Day through Election Day for the first terms of both Trump and Obama. Trump’s tenure was certainly a good stretch for investors: The S&P 500 index rose 45.7% over that time, for an annualized return of 10.5% a year.


But that still doesn’t come close to matching the gains seen under Barack Obama. During Obama’s first term, the S&P was up 77.4% for an annualized total return of 16.3%.

Trump's stock market performance is officially much worse than Obama's in his first term

Trump's tenure was certainly a good stretch for investors—but not nearly as good as his predecessor's first term.

fortune.com

 

[stoney]

Sadly this also means Biden is probably walking into a mine field.

 

[Full Trucker]

Aren't we ALL walking a mine field right now?

 

[stoney]

Aren't we ALL walking a mine field right now?

From an investment perspective, if you aren't invested swinging for home runs, not really. If you are risk appropriate given how far from retirement you are, if things go down it will hurt, but you won't be blown out of the water. If you invest like a gambler hoping to make millions tomorrow, then you'll get fucking annihilated. That unfortunately is how a majority of this country (that can/does) invests and points fingers, because god forbid they can't take blame for bad decisions.

Hence, we're likely to go into a recession of some aspect and he'll get blamed for it. Fox and the Republicans will beat that drum incessantly, making themselves sound like the solution. When in reality, like every other market crash in the last 3 decades, this has been largely their fault. ex. When the economy and market overheat, you have to let the Fed try to slow it down, not throw more money into it and drop rates. Republicans have cut taxes, pumped money in, and pressured the Fed to keep rates every single time, which leads to a worse downturn.

As for my first paragraph, I realistically expect to take a 20-30% hit in my accounts at our next market downturn. BUT I am invested at a 40 y/o who is comfortable with risk. And risk is defined by how you handle a downturn in the market. Anybody is comfortable with risk when their accounts are going up. How you handle it going down truly defines your risk tolerance.

Given you're 5 yrs older than me, I would expect you to be marginally more conservative than me. @Nick the same to you, which would be notably different to me. Then look at @Adventurous - he's younger than me and should be comparatively more aggressive. But compared to you, he will be notably such. and at the far end, @johnbryanpeters - he should make all of us look like madmen. Of course this is all based on general rule-of-thumb entirely on our ages, but it still stands. If @Nick is more aggressive than @Adventurous there is a serious problem on one or both sides of that comparison.

The average American doesn't do this however. They look for the immediate, easy way. Our education system is flawed (for many reasons) and doesn't properly teach economics or even basic compounding of interest. If everybody is trying to get the win while taking absolute risk, the consequences are much higher. I regularly talk to retirees who have substantially less that we do, with equal expenses, but carrying more risk, all while refusing to hear anything I'm saying about what can (and eventually will) happen.

***This post is not investment advice. If you need investment advice, reach out to your local professional.***

 

[Pesqueeb]

Sadly this also means Biden is probably walking into a mine field.

Cue Republicans remembering how important the deficit is in 3....2.....

 

[Nick]

If you are risk appropriate given how far from retirement you are, if things go down it will hurt, but you won't be blown out of the water.

I always think I am, yet, always feel like I'm not.

 

[daisycutter]

I could not agree more. One of the big mistakes the Obama administration made was saying the Bush Recession would be fixed in a year. Our economy is in shambles and we will have to deal with a Covid mess which will take time to correct. I feel Biden will be blamed for the sins of Trump over the next few years.

 

[stoney]

I could not agree more. One of the big mistakes the Obama administration made was saying the Bush Recession would be fixed in a year. Our economy is in shambles and we will have to deal with a Covid mess which will take time to correct. I feel Biden will be blamed for the sins of Trump over the next few years.

This. I live in a very well off suburban county. Iirc, it's one of the 5 wealthiest counties in the country (not tooting my horn; we found out after we moved here) with an average household income around $130k/yr and what's happened elsewhere hasn't hit here yet. I think that's why it's been such a Trump haven to date. I deal with a lot o blue-collar public employees daily who are sheltered from work loss and see the same pro-Trump stance. But when I get to people who are impacted - larger household income laid off or municipality in furloughs - the stance is VERY different. Those people changed directions very quickly and started blaming Trump almost immediately. The people in my area and sheltered blue-collar workers will turn on Biden as soon as they are impacted.

 

[stoney]

Cue Republicans remembering how important the deficit is in 3....2.....

Already started. Cruz was talking about it 2 weeks ago.

 

[Toshi]

Halt COVID’s spread and much of the economy will bounce back. Note the latter depends on the former.

 

[stoney]

Halt COVID’s spread and much of the economy will bounce back. Note the latter depends on the former.

Our economy is service based. You don't have people spending on service when they don't feel it's safe to go out. If you get rid of the risk, you bring back the business. It's a pretty simple concept.

 

[mykel]

...***This post is not investment advice. If you need investment advice, reach out to your local professional.***

No, but just fucking common sense.
Really, is this concept hard to understand?
If this is the point you have to start at, and you have to constantly drive this point home....
JFC

 

[stoney]

No, but just fucking common sense.
Really, is this concept hard to understand?
If this is the point you have to start at, and you have to constantly drive this point home....
JFC

Welcome to the USA.

 

[6thElement]

Cue Republicans remembering how important the deficit is in 3....2.....

Already started. Cruz was talking about it 2 weeks ago.

Lady G stated in the last day or so that if Repub's hold the senate he would like to be on one of the finance roles so they can "start to address the deficit."

 

[Pesqueeb]

Lady G stated in the last day or so that if Repub's hold the senate he would like to be on one of the finance roles so they can "start to address the deficit."

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[Brian HCM#1]

A big issue can be if Biden gets his tax increases that he's pushing. IMO going after corporations that are paying little to no taxes will be taken out on (A) increase prices on goods, consumers will feel the hit (B) Mass employment layoffs to offset corporate tax increases. End of the day, its all about the bottom line for companies, they're in it to make money, not give it away. Hopefully a COVID vaccine and therapeutics are right around the corner which should help bring a lot of the current unemployment close to where it was before March 2020.

 

[Pesqueeb]

Due to the nature of my company's business being very intertwined with municipalities, we're not allowed to contribute financially to any individual candidates (company doesn't either). Just the risk of the impression of financial bribery is enough for us to lose business and to be fired. It's rather frustrating actually. That being said, our lobbying dept is apparently also quite small as well. Lawyers making arguments, but very little money going that way. Kind of nice to know that, especially given how large we are withing the space.

Rudy is free. He could probably hook you up with a couple straw donors.

 

[Jm_]

A big issue can be if Biden gets his tax increases that he's pushing. IMO going after corporations that are paying little to no taxes will be taken out on (A) increase prices on goods, consumers will feel the hit

Kinda like tariffs.

Going after companies that pay little or no taxes is what needs to happen, given giant companies like Boeing and others that have paid none much of the time...well, Boeing won't be the best example due to the massive losses that will probably limit their liability for the upcoming years, but you know what I mean. This is the true fucking cost of running a civilization, so we need to get with it.

 

[Toshi]

A big issue can be if Biden gets his tax increases that he's pushing. IMO going after corporations that are paying little to no taxes will be taken out on (A) increase prices on goods, consumers will feel the hit (B) Mass employment layoffs to offset corporate tax increases. End of the day, its all about the bottom line for companies, they're in it to make money, not give it away. Hopefully a COVID vaccine and therapeutics are right around the corner which should help bring a lot of the current unemployment close to where it was before March 2020.

Bullshit. The current tax boon for corporations didn't lead to more employment. It led to more stock buybacks and executive bonuses. Ergo, reversing it...

Kinda like tariffs.

Going after companies that pay little or no taxes is what needs to happen, given giant companies like Boeing and others that have paid none much of the time...well, Boeing won't be the best example due to the massive losses that will probably limit their liability for the upcoming years, but you know what I mean. This is the true fucking cost of running a civilization, so we need to get with it.

But I thought China was paying for them

 

[kidwoo]

Bullshit. The current tax boon for corporations didn't lead to more employment. It led to more stock buybacks and executive bonuses. Ergo, reversing it...

thank you

They myth of trickle down has convinced everyone that cheaper supply and lower taxes equates to better prices or employment. It's complete horse shit.

Savings never get passed down. Like profits, only up.

Specialized bikes is the perfect example of this. When they went fully overseas, especially with carbon, the quality went down, the margins got huge, but the bikes just got more expensive because 'exotic'. They are the lowest grade carbon frame product you can buy.......which is why they break so much.

 

[SkaredShtles]

thank you

They myth of trickle down has convinced everyone that cheaper supply and lower taxes equates to better prices or employment. It's complete horse shit.

Savings never get passed down. Like profits, only up.

Specialized bikes is the perfect example of this. When they went fully overseas, especially with carbon, the quality went down, the margins got huge, but the bikes just got more expensive because 'exotic'. They are the lowest grade carbon frame product you can buy.......which is why they break so much.

Fuck Specialized.

 

[JohnE]

From an investment perspective, if you aren't invested swinging for home runs, not really. If you are risk appropriate given how far from retirement you are, if things go down it will hurt, but you won't be blown out of the water. If you invest like a gambler hoping to make millions tomorrow, then you'll get fucking annihilated. That unfortunately is how a majority of this country (that can/does) invests and points fingers, because god forbid they can't take blame for bad decisions.

Hence, we're likely to go into a recession of some aspect and he'll get blamed for it. Fox and the Republicans will beat that drum incessantly, making themselves sound like the solution. When in reality, like every other market crash in the last 3 decades, this has been largely their fault. ex. When the economy and market overheat, you have to let the Fed try to slow it down, not throw more money into it and drop rates. Republicans have cut taxes, pumped money in, and pressured the Fed to keep rates every single time, which leads to a worse downturn.

As for my first paragraph, I realistically expect to take a 20-30% hit in my accounts at our next market downturn. BUT I am invested at a 40 y/o who is comfortable with risk. And risk is defined by how you handle a downturn in the market. Anybody is comfortable with risk when their accounts are going up. How you handle it going down truly defines your risk tolerance.

Given you're 5 yrs older than me, I would expect you to be marginally more conservative than me. @Nick the same to you, which would be notably different to me. Then look at @Adventurous - he's younger than me and should be comparatively more aggressive. But compared to you, he will be notably such. and at the far end, @johnbryanpeters - he should make all of us look like madmen. Of course this is all based on general rule-of-thumb entirely on our ages, but it still stands. If @Nick is more aggressive than @Adventurous there is a serious problem on one or both sides of that comparison.

The average American doesn't do this however. They look for the immediate, easy way. Our education system is flawed (for many reasons) and doesn't properly teach economics or even basic compounding of interest. If everybody is trying to get the win while taking absolute risk, the consequences are much higher. I regularly talk to retirees who have substantially less that we do, with equal expenses, but carrying more risk, all while refusing to hear anything I'm saying about what can (and eventually will) happen.

***This post is not investment advice. If you need investment advice, reach out to your local professional.***

So you are saying plastics???

 

[Westy]

thank you

They myth of trickle down has convinced everyone that cheaper supply and lower taxes equates to better prices or employment. It's complete horse shit.

Savings never get passed down. Like profits, only up.

Specialized bikes is the perfect example of this. When they went fully overseas, especially with carbon, the quality went down, the margins got huge, but the bikes just got more expensive because 'exotic'. They are the lowest grade carbon frame product you can buy.......which is why they break so much.

Especially when you consider that corporations get taxed on profits, not revenue. Reducing corporate taxes to allow the companies to "reinvest" in the company to grow doesn't work. That reinvestment is an expense and therefore never taxed in the first place. What it does do is allow corporations to by back stock inflating stock prices. So wealthy share owners profit while schmucks like us who pay taxes on income bear a much larger overall tax burden while seeing little to no benefit.

 

[Changleen]

This is the true fucking cost of running a civilization, so we need to get with it.

This.

 

[stevew]

thanks pfizer....

 

[Westy]

This is the true fucking cost of running a civilization

I think we stopped making the payments on that.

 

[jonKranked]

Bullshit. The current tax boon for corporations didn't lead to more employment. It led to more stock buybacks and executive bonuses. Ergo, reversing it...

not only that, most signs are pointing towards another recession. raising prices and mass layoffs would only fast track that.

 

[Adventurous]

From an investment perspective, if you aren't invested swinging for home runs, not really. If you are risk appropriate given how far from retirement you are, if things go down it will hurt, but you won't be blown out of the water. If you invest like a gambler hoping to make millions tomorrow, then you'll get fucking annihilated. That unfortunately is how a majority of this country (that can/does) invests and points fingers, because god forbid they can't take blame for bad decisions.

Hence, we're likely to go into a recession of some aspect and he'll get blamed for it. Fox and the Republicans will beat that drum incessantly, making themselves sound like the solution. When in reality, like every other market crash in the last 3 decades, this has been largely their fault. ex. When the economy and market overheat, you have to let the Fed try to slow it down, not throw more money into it and drop rates. Republicans have cut taxes, pumped money in, and pressured the Fed to keep rates every single time, which leads to a worse downturn.

As for my first paragraph, I realistically expect to take a 20-30% hit in my accounts at our next market downturn. BUT I am invested at a 40 y/o who is comfortable with risk. And risk is defined by how you handle a downturn in the market. Anybody is comfortable with risk when their accounts are going up. How you handle it going down truly defines your risk tolerance.

Given you're 5 yrs older than me, I would expect you to be marginally more conservative than me. @Nick the same to you, which would be notably different to me. Then look at @Adventurous - he's younger than me and should be comparatively more aggressive. But compared to you, he will be notably such. and at the far end, @johnbryanpeters - he should make all of us look like madmen. Of course this is all based on general rule-of-thumb entirely on our ages, but it still stands. If @Nick is more aggressive than @Adventurous there is a serious problem on one or both sides of that comparison.

The average American doesn't do this however. They look for the immediate, easy way. Our education system is flawed (for many reasons) and doesn't properly teach economics or even basic compounding of interest. If everybody is trying to get the win while taking absolute risk, the consequences are much higher. I regularly talk to retirees who have substantially less that we do, with equal expenses, but carrying more risk, all while refusing to hear anything I'm saying about what can (and eventually will) happen.

***This post is not investment advice. If you need investment advice, reach out to your local professional.***

This. I live in a very well off suburban county. Iirc, it's one of the 5 wealthiest counties in the country (not tooting my horn; we found out after we moved here) with an average household income around $130k/yr and what's happened elsewhere hasn't hit here yet. I think that's why it's been such a Trump haven to date. I deal with a lot o blue-collar public employees daily who are sheltered from work loss and see the same pro-Trump stance. But when I get to people who are impacted - larger household income laid off or municipality in furloughs - the stance is VERY different. Those people changed directions very quickly and started blaming Trump almost immediately. The people in my area and sheltered blue-collar workers will turn on Biden as soon as they are impacted.

Risk Index = 8.0

That translated to a 33% decrease in my 401K when SHTF in March. Unpalatable sure, but watching that "money" move is almost like a surreal exercise. It's not like I've ever touched it or seen it, it all just floats around in the digital ether, going up and going down, all the while supposedly there.

Honestly, assuming I retain employment, I would welcome things cooling off for oh, 10 years or so. Given the bleak projections on how much the millennial generation must save for retirement, assuming the meager rate of return in the future, as well as what is likely to be reduced SS benefits, I could use all the help I can get. And that's coming from someone whose balance is equivalent to the average American 20 years older...

 

[Nick]

And that's coming from someone whose balance is equivalent to the average American 20 years older...

What are you now Tim, 40ish?

You've got time.

 

[Adventurous]

What are you now Tim, 40ish?

You've got time.

34. Starting to think I should just YOLO and take a long walk off a short pier at 75 so I can skip the watching Jeopardy and shitting my pants phase of life.

 

[kidwoo]

skip the watching Jeopardy and shitting my pants phase of life.

hey don't knock it till you try it

 

[Adventurous]

hey don't knock it till you try it

True. The last time(s) I shit myself, I was only wearing underwear. Maybe I'll have to give a pair of Dockers w/ stain defender a test drive one of these days in preparation.

 

[Nick]

Dockers w/ stain defender

It's this a thing?

 

[kidwoo]

heh

'wearing things'

 

[Adventurous]

It's this a thing?

You bet your buns it is. Even have an elastic waist too AND come in DJT approved fits.

With Dockers stain defender, you don't have to smell like shit, but you'll sure look like it!

 

[JohnE]

I came here for 401 talk, and I get this?

Damn, I missed you guys...

 

[Changleen]

Should have put $1000 in BitCoin a few years ago...

 

[Pesqueeb]

Should have put $1000 in BitCoin a few years ago...

Cryptocurrencies are just Glenn Beck gold scams for nerds. Change my mind.

 

[Toshi]

Should have put $1000 in BitCoin a few years ago...

I bought my e-bike with BTC profits



(true story. Got in and got out after 1 year + 1 week so as to make it unambiguously LTCG.)

 

[Changleen]

I bought my e-bike with BTC profits



(true story. Got in and got out after 1 year + 1 week so as to make it unambiguously LTCG.)

OMG so did I!