[BurlyShirley]

Just a few years ago, China passed by the United States in numbers of total gross domestic product output. In the last 10 years, they have more than quadrupled what they had going in the early 1990s. To make matters worse for the U.S., China is again expected in the next 10 years to quadruple those numbers yet again. Sound Crazy? Experts are now saying that they may be able to accomplish this feat as many as 3 or 4 times over, in the next 60 years. It is impossible for the U.S. to keep up with this production.
With China's extremely efficient energy resources, vast numbers of people, highly skilled professionals and ever growing military strength, it seems apparent that in the next 20 years, the United States will not be the world's Superpower. Even their space program is quickly catching ours, with plans to have men on the moon in 2006.



Is the U.S. prepared for this?
What actions should we take?
Does anyone believe me?

 

[fluff]

Originally posted by BurlySurly

Is the U.S. prepared for this?
What actions should we take?
Does anyone believe me?

Are you saying that the US must remain the only superpower?

If that's not necessary why do they need to do anything? After all plenty of other countries exist quite nicely without needing to be dominant (Canada, Spain, Italy for example).

 

[LordOpie]

me thinks the UK is suffering from power-envy

No, I don't believe those numbers. You're getting into repeated exponential growth over a long period of time. I think to maintain any significant growth, they're gov't. structure will have to change significantly... I don't think they want that.

 

[fluff]

Originally posted by LordOpie
me thinks the UK is suffering from power-envy

Not me mate, I have all the power I ever want.

It's be quite happy for the UK to be more like Spain. I was quite surprised the Spanish got involved in backing the coalition although I don't think they sent any troops. They tend not to worry so much about the rest of the world, I wonder if Gibralter was on the agenda somewhere....

 

[BurlyShirley]

Originally posted by LordOpie


No, I don't believe those numbers. You're getting into repeated exponential growth over a long period of time. I think to maintain any significant growth, they're gov't. structure will have to change significantly... I don't think they want that.

What makes you think that Opie?

China's govt., regardless of the human rights issues we're always pinning against them, actually does alot for its people. Rather than paying money for students from other countries to go to school there, China really invests in its own people. That, and theyve recently found ways to tax down to the lowest farmer in the furthest corner of the country. That equates to alot of money when you consider the 2.5 BILLION people there. China, economically speaking, is already ahead of the US. With the huge numbers of students enrolled in masters degree equivalent programs and beyond, they'll be scientifically past us relatively soon.
What im saying opie, is regardless of governmental structure, there's simply too much momentum to slow them down.

 

[llkoolkeg]

1) Is the U.S. prepared for this?

Did Richard Milhous ever father a son?

2) What actions should we take?

What are the Cantonese words for Glasnost and Perestroika?

3) Does anyone believe me?

As long as you aren't talking about reefer.



The bottom line is that when you look at their GNP or GDP on a per capita basis, they are by and large a nation of impoverished serfs envied by none and kept in line with fear and ignorance. Militarily, we both have enough nukes to crack this planet like a roasted nut, so short of Armageddon, we have little to fear unless you envision their conventional forces gobbling up neighbors and daring us to react.

 

[Tenchiro]

Good for China.

 

[BurlyShirley]

Originally posted by llkoolkeg


The bottom line is that when you look at their GNP or GDP on a per capita basis, they are by and large a nation of impoverished serfs envied by none and kept in line with fear and ignorance. Militarily, we both have enough nukes to crack this planet like a roasted nut, so short of Armageddon, we have little to fear unless you envision their conventional forces gobbling up neighbors and daring us to react.

One word............TAIWAN.

 

[ohio]

I don't see them as a threat, they have no interest in blowing us up, invading us, or terrorizing us. But I do see them as an inevitability... one which I hope our egos are prepared to handle.

We do have a economic edge due to a major cultural difference, in that from a very young age we are taught to think creatively and freely (it's one of the few positive points about our public school systems... our elementary education is usually excellent). It allows us to constantly innovate. We're not so good at refining, which is why manufacturing facilities are almost always ultimately moved overseas, but ideas originate here.

I'm not worried about being the biggest. I'm only worried about our standard of living dropping... and I don't think it will. We have a definite edge.

We risk destroying that edge if we continue to neglect our high-schools... but for now, it's still there.

 

[BurlyShirley]

Originally posted by ohio
I don't see them as a threat, they have no interest in blowing us up, invading us, or terrorizing us. But I do see them as an inevitability... one which I hope our egos are prepared to handle.

We do have a economic edge due to a major cultural difference, in that from a very young age we are taught to think creatively and freely (it's one of the few positive points about our public school systems... our elementary education is usually excellent). It allows us to constantly innovate. We're not so good at refining, which is why manufacturing facilities are almost always ultimately moved overseas, but ideas originate here.

I'm not worried about being the biggest. I'm only worried about our standard of living dropping... and I don't think it will. We have a definite edge.

We risk destroying that edge if we continue to neglect our high-schools... but for now, it's still there.

No, i didnt mean them as a threat as in, invading the states and taking over or anything. But in terms of our overseas interests, especially in the pacific theater, and trading with Taiwan...real problems will arise.
I believe that our standard of living may suffer a bit. The "edge" you speak of is fine in theory, but translating that into results for the country wont be easy. I believe, we need to work more on self sufficience, than on international trade to deal with the impending future.

 

[mrbigisbudgood]

Originally posted by ohio

We do have a economic edge due to a major cultural difference, in that from a very young age we are taught to think creatively and freely (it's one of the few positive points about our public school systems... our elementary education is usually excellent). It allows us to constantly innovate. We're not so good at refining, which is why manufacturing facilities are almost always ultimately moved overseas, but ideas originate here.

I think your completely wrong about our manufacturing facilities.

We are perfectly capable of refining designs and lowering costs in US manufacturing facilities. There are many 6 sigma facilities in the states. The advantage Chinese production have over us is Government Subsidies. The Chinese government will float the bill to have a manufacturing facility build with 100% in house manufacturing at 0% interest. Try finding that here in the States.

Name one American company that does 100% raw material in and product out manufacturing. I can name 3 of our vendors in China that do.

When a facility does all in house manufacturing, they can lower costs due to overhead absorbtion. Factor in near slave wages and China can kick our butt any day on final product price.

So here you have a building purchased at 0% interest, full in house manufacturing, slave wages, on site housing, no union.....no wonder we loose so much a year to China. Heck, we're closing another one of our plants in the next 18 months and moving everything overseas.

IT MAKES ME SICK!!!!!!!!! :angry:

 

[ohio]

Originally posted by mrbigisbudgood
I think your completely wrong about our manufacturing facilities.

We are perfectly capable of refining designs and lowering costs in US manufacturing facilities. There are many 6 sigma facilities in the states.

For the last twenty years we have always been a step behind the Japanese in terms of production technologies. We will probably ALWAYS be behind India and China in terms of cost of engineering. My point is, once an idea is in place, it is cheaper to engineer and produce it OUTSIDE the US.

Despite that, I think Burly's argument for self-sufficiency is backwards. We generate ideas better than anyone else, but right now China has no problem stealing them and producing them better and cheaper. With better trade agreements, our patent rights could be extended, our corporations could serve larger markets. Let other countries do the production, while we do the management and development. There's a reason the best consulting firms in the world (short of McKinsey) are American, the best investment banks are American... Dupont, 3M, Dow Chemical, Gore technologies... all American. We need to start concentrating on what we do best, and the larger the markets are for those talents to serve, the more money we will make.

Why would we pass up the opportunity to serve a market that's 2.5 billion people large?

 

[Damn True]

Originally posted by ohio
We risk destroying that edge if we continue to neglect our high-schools... but for now, it's still there.

Key point.

 

[BurlyShirley]

Originally posted by ohio
For the last twenty years we have always been a step behind the Japanese in terms of production technologies. We will probably ALWAYS be behind India and China in terms of cost of engineering. My point is, once an idea is in place, it is cheaper to engineer and produce it OUTSIDE the US.

Despite that, I think Burly's argument for self-sufficiency is backwards. We generate ideas better than anyone else, but right now China has no problem stealing them and producing them better and cheaper. With better trade agreements, our patent rights could be extended, our corporations could serve larger markets. Let other countries do the production, while we do the management and development. There's a reason the best consulting firms in the world (short of McKinsey) are American, the best investment banks are American... Dupont, 3M, Dow Chemical, Gore technologies... all American. We need to start concentrating on what we do best, and the larger the markets are for those talents to serve, the more money we will make.

Why would we pass up the opportunity to serve a market that's 2.5 billion people large?

Yes, our corporations could serve larger markets. But, why would we want things produced elswhere? What about Jobs right here man? Management and Development will not provide employment for the majority of the people in the country. That should be fairly obvious.
By self sufficiency, i also mean in terms of power, like the Chinese. Less oil, more hydro. Get me?
The kind of things youre talking about would totally eliminate any middle class.

 

[ohio]

Originally posted by BurlySurly
Management and Development will not provide employment for the majority of the people in the country. That should be fairly obvious.

No they do not... but they could.

I'm not talking about elimination of the middle class. I'm talking about the middle class consuming more of the lower class. A shift from blue collar to white collar... where we can compete.

I don't foresee total elimination of domestic production, I'm just want to be prepared for the ass-beating we'll probably take in most industries at the production level by becoming better at what we excel at.

I agree with you that I'd also like to see more self-sufficiency in energy. That's actually an area where we CAN compete. No one on Earth is better situated (in terms of combined technology and natural resources) to take advantage of a shift to hydrogen-fuel that will hopefully occur about 20 years from now.

 

[Silver]

Actually, the one great point that BurlySurly 's touched on is Taiwan, and I don't think anyone else followed up on it yet, so here goes

I fully expect to see a ****storm along with some type of military action there in 20 years. The Chinese are still reallllly pissed about not having Taiwan as part of their territory.

Are we willing to risk a war with China over Taiwan? We've got the bombs, I know, but at the same time, China's no slouch. Especially if we give them 20 years.

 

[Damn True]

Originally posted by Silver
Actually, the one great point that BurlySurly 's touched on is Taiwan, and I don't think anyone else followed up on it yet, so here goes

I fully expect to see a ****storm along with some type of military action there in 20 years. The Chinese are still reallllly pissed about not having Taiwan as part of their territory.

Are we willing to risk a war with China over Taiwan? We've got the bombs, I know, but at the same time, China's no slouch. Especially if we give them 20 years.

....and if Gore had been elected they'd still have the keys to Los Alamos.


Then we'd really be up a creek.

 

[ohio]

Originally posted by Damn True
....and if Gore had been elected

Man, I missed you DT.

Good to have you back.

 

[Silver]

Originally posted by Damn True
....and if Gore had been elected they'd still have the keys to Los Alamos.


Then we'd really be up a creek.

D'oh!

Just wait until Bush adds China to the Axis of Evil.

I mean c'mon, there are a BILLION people living under communist slavery there. I know we just liberated Iraq, but George will get into heaven for sure if he can bring Christian enlightenment to the Chinese.

edit: I need to learn to spell properly the first time!

 

[Jorvik]

Who's read Tom Clancy's "The Bear and the Dragon?"

If Jack Ryan was POTUS we'd have no problem with any other country... EVER.

 

[Dog Welder]

Wow I have to chime in here because it seems that not a SINGLE ONE of you have ever been to China let alone experienced what the economic turn around has taken place in the last 10 years. To call China a communist state now...would be like call the US a communist state. The government knows that true communism doesn't work. They're more of a socialist free market. If you got the balls to make some reall money...the government is behind you all the way...they just want their cut....sound familiar? There are not 2.5 billion people in China...more like 1.3. That extra 1.2 BILLION adds a $hit load to the missconception. It seems that a VAST majority of Americans view China as this a$$ backward, dark country where there are billions of shackled slaves dressed up like Mao. On my way back from Shanghai I spoked to a number of people on the plane who were business folks on their way back. To them the reality of China is NOTHING like the unfounded assumptions that many Americans have. When I was working at a bike shop I made more money in one day than my uncle did in a month. Yet he lives comfortably. The average joe in China makes about $1500 USD a year. To us that sure as hell looks like slave labor. But when you break down the standard of living the pay is equivalent as the the average unskilled worker here in the States, which is around minimum wage.

Secondly there ain't NO WAY either country will EVER go to war with each other. There will be postering but the fact of the matter is too much MONEY is at stake. Think about it for a moment. Lets say the UN/US puts an economic embargo on China. Nothing comes in, nothing comes out. Pretty soon your clothes will become worn. Your bike parts will break. Your electronics will fail. Sure we can make all that stuff here in the US. But the consumer will be faced with the burden of picking up the tab....and when money is tight will you pay extra for that American made product when a Chinese made product is cheaper? Hell that's why I shop at Costco. China gets put in a crunch as well but if you read your history around WW2...those cats can tough it out.

Yet one must first realized that China is still a developing country. It still has a LONG WAY to go and a number of obstacles to overcome. Hell the US has always been a Superpower but didn't start gathering steam until after WW2...and that was 60 years ago.

What it breaks down to is fear. Fear that we aren't or won't be top dog. Hell look what our fear of Russia did to both countries. McCarthy era Commie witch hunts. Just look at the title of this thread its not the China Economic Friend or China/US: Partners for the Future, Its The China Threat...are we going to get Fvcked or are we going to Fvck them first. If a man can out produce you, is better educated than you, of course yer going to fear him because he may threaten your lively hood. But should you cut him down? HELL NO! You bust your chops until you can out produce him, until you're better educated than him, until you can do the job better than him....and so on. It makes better people out of both of you. Where as if you were to just cut him down...you would simply stagnate. You got no challage to make you better. Isn't that the American way? To be the best and reap the rewards? Are we afraid now that we may have spread American ethics and thinking a little too far now? That someone else is now more "American" than we are?

To be honest I'm a bit at odds when this topic comes up. I was born in Taiwan but came here when I was only 3 months old. I consider this my country yet I still have strong ancestral ties to China and I hate it when people come up and slam that cuz of their own ignorance. Yet again I can't speak too favorably for China or be labeled as an unpatriotic immigrant when my fvcking great grandfather and his brothers came here and built the railroads that in turn built this country.

Ahhhhhh fvck it. I'm tired.

 

[BurlyShirley]

Originally posted by Dog Welder


Ahhhhhh fvck it. I'm tired.

Great post.

What im getting at overall, is that China is moving up in the world really quickly...economically speaking. I think that (and you kind of touched on it) that the US is very dependent on China, but i dont think that China is so dependent on the US. This is where i see problems coming in, in the future.
I dont think theres any way to really out produce China anymore.

 

[Dog Welder]

Originally posted by BurlySurly
Great post.

What im getting at overall, is that China is moving up in the world really quickly...economically speaking. I think that (and you kind of touched on it) that the US is very dependent on China, but i dont think that China is so dependent on the US. This is where i see problems coming in, in the future.
I dont think theres any way to really out produce China anymore.

I think when it comes down to it, it has to be like brotherhood. One man depending on another, vice versa. You being in the Marines should be intimately familiar with this. One man is just one man...but two men working together is the worth of 3 or 4 men working independently. Its the BUDDY SYSTEM man! We depend on their production...they depend on our free thinking. The current state of the world and personal thinking is that we are always at odds with each other...rather than always in COOPERATION with each other. That way of thinking simply doesn't work. Its the root of conflict, whether martial, personal, religious, economic etc.

Chinese culture and thinking moves SLLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOWWWWWWW. They don't accept new ideas as quickly as we do. They're of the If it ain't broke don't fix it whereas we are of the IF it ain't broke...how can we make it better. This means that as Chinese people grow to be freer thinkers like Americans it will require us to produce generations of even freer/greater thinkers...thereby countinuing the brotherhood. Think of it as one brother who is immensly strong but can't figure out how to pull a gigantic tree stump out of the ground. Well the less strong brother but more intellectual will be able to figure out the best use of the other brother's strength...you get me? Or if your buddy ain't picking up his slack or doing his share then he's gonna get dropped. That's why our educational system HAS TO BE THE ABSOLUTE KING S#IT OF THE WORLD! If we can't produce our own **** and we can't think up of our own **** we will become an entire society of consumers until EVERYTHING is drained from this country. Until WE become the third world motherfvckers.


You said that you don't think we'll ever out produce China. So ...just produce something else.

 

[ohio]

Originally posted by BurlySurly
I think that (and you kind of touched on it) that the US is very dependent on China, but i dont think that China is so dependent on the US.

As they develop, they will become more-so. They can get it done on their own, but we can make a lot of money helping them do it faster, if we're willing to get over the idea of that being a bad thing.

No we will never outproduce them, which is why we shouldn't try to. See my previous posts... we need to make sure we're prepared to serve what will be the largest market on Earth in the areas that we CAN compete.

going back over your recent posts, and DogWelder's... I think we're actually in agreement (I'm sure you'll correct me if I'm wrong).

 

[mrbigisbudgood]

Originally posted by BurlySurly
Great post.

What im getting at overall, is that China is moving up in the world really quickly...economically speaking. I think that (and you kind of touched on it) that the US is very dependent on China, but i dont think that China is so dependent on the US. This is where i see problems coming in, in the future.
I dont think theres any way to really out produce China anymore.

Walk into your local Wal-Mart and look at where appliances and toys are made. Then tell me that China isn't dependant on the US.

The company I work for imports thousands of containers of product a year from China directly to Wal-Mart.

China offered a cost advantage, the US has taken advantage of that. Result? Lower priced stuff, China gets rich in the process. Go to Shen-zen or Hong-Kong and look around at all the Americans there doing business, they treat us like Gods when we go over there because they want our business.

China is most definitely dependant on the US, and the US is equally dependant on China. The amount of money this company spends over there alone is incredible.

 

[Ranger]

Originally posted by mrbigisbudgood
Walk into your local Wal-Mart and look at where appliances and toys are made. Then tell me that China isn't dependant on the US.

Sort of. You can walk into any store in any country in the world and look at the shelves and find the same thing - the world is dependant on Chinese labor because everyone likes a good bargain even if the quality of product suffers for it. If the U.S. ceases to be a purchaser of Chinese products, the Chinese economy will suffer but not founder.

 

[Thepagoda]

I agree with Mr. Dog Welder entirely. Rather than developing contingencies for dealing with "The China Threat" we should be working on ways to grow with them. The US has been moving from a production based society to a service based society ever since the booms brought out by the second world war, that shift has been even more apparent since the end of the cold war. what we haven't done very well is to preserve our intellectual and educational cultures. Those are what are going to come into play in the future. If the US still wants to be cutting edge at something, we should value our education much better.

China is very dependent on the US, that dependence is manifested in both market share (being that Americans are the greatest buyers of worthless crap in the world, a lot of it made in china) and in innovation. If their dependence on us comes down to market only, that's when our trade deficit begins to screw us and we really are their bitches