Dow 8900....

dante · Mar 5, 2009

Hey Stoney - Do you know if there's anybody pairing up leveraged ETFs with their tracking indexes and profiting off the difference? Everything I've read recently has been that over the long-term, leveraged ETFs significantly underperform the multiplier of their index fund that they're tracking. Basically in a choppy market the leveraged downside outweighs the leveraged upside. Soo... (you can probably see where I'm going with this) If you were to short 100 shares of BGU (3x the Russell 1000), and buy 300 shares of IWB (Russell 1000) you should have the potential to make the difference with no upside risk, correct?

Note, I'm no trader (just an investor so I wouldn't be messing with this) but was lying in bed wondering why this wouldn't work and I couldn't come up with a reason. Is it just that the amount wouldn't be that great and the ROI would pretty much not be worth the it? Just curious...

dante · Mar 5, 2009

The Joker said:
6595 close...
And I thought my 6200 call was bearish ...

jeez this is reminding me of Sept... the point totals are a whole lot less, but that's because the market is worth 50%.

dante · Jan 25, 2010

The Joker said:
Tell me when you mom wants to get back into the market. She timed this one perfectly.

Not yet... at least haven't heard anything. She usually picks the very top of a looooong bull market (dot com, 2007, etc) or generational lows, not these little ups and downs in the market. It's only when everyone in her office is getting greedy and bragging about how much they're up (bubble) or when everyone is panicking and listening to Glen Beck about how they're supposed to own gold because the world is coming to an end (bubble bursting) that she ever comes to me for advice.

dante · Jan 25, 2010

The Joker said:
I really hope you kept this:

Some, but my precious metals holdings are reduced to about 10% of my portfolio. I mainly used that to increase my ED holdings, and that is up about 10% and paying a juicy 5.5% dividend so I really can't complain.

I'm just concerned that 1) We're not actually going to get the hyper-inflation that people are worried about and 2) That gold/silver/commodities wouldn't actually hedge against it. Since the late 1970s the price of gold has gone nowhere (actually down from 1979 - 2007) and inflation has definitely been apparent during that time.

So picked up a government sponsored utility instead, since they've got a monopoly on energy and the ability to raise prices as needed to cover their energy costs. Again, it's a long-term view and something that's not flashy or going to make me a millionaire over night, but hopefully going to be a nice slow growth stock.

ridiculous · May 21, 2010

hmmm
crap news, bogus finance regulation. 100% retracements. Which direction will it go? Spin the wheel.

ridiculous · May 21, 2010

Well the good news is there is some volatility in the market. I feel better about the market going back up or back down with the vix at 40 than I do at 18.

I too have been playing with FAZ. Unfortunately I have a small account and Im out of of day trades for another 4 days. As far as contracts with volatility being twice as much as it was in April you should be able to make the same amount on half the number of contracts. Who am I telling, you already knew that Joker. Im going delta neutral for now, but im really liking the looks of BIDU to the upside. Just not sure now is the time to buy.

Have any interest in oversold tech stocks?

Toshi · Jan 21, 2011

An update.

Westy · Jan 27, 2011

Try it now?

jimmydean · Jan 27, 2011

Westy said:
Try it now?

Westy! Did you get unbanned, or did you finally get a job to afford your internetz?

ridiculous · Aug 2, 2011

bump.

Pesqueeb · Aug 2, 2011

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-02/obama-bonds-proved-world-beaters-as-congress-played-chicken-with-u-s-debt.html

-2.75%

ridiculous · Aug 2, 2011

The Joker said:
What did I miss? Is the bottom falling out?

S&P now in the red for the year.
Deer in headlights politics.
Something about a ceiling.
Habitual line stepping at 1284 this morning then massive selling until 1252.
Something else about a ceiling.
A bunch of bulls losing their ass.
Break of 1252...
8 day losing streak.
A bump of this thread.
Ben Bernanke's money cannon has jammed.
Hilarious ZH articles.

If you pay attention to the market you pretty much knew this was coming days ago. So no, theJoker, you missed nothing.

Pesqueeb · Aug 4, 2011

We have another -500 point and 8900 is gonna look pretty fvcking good. :panic:

ridiculous · Aug 5, 2011

Ok this morning was rough on the nerves. Its been basically a 600 pt + swing in 3 hrs.

ridiculous · Aug 5, 2011

US Just stripped of its AAA credit rating. This should be good.

dante · Aug 5, 2011

ridiculous said:
US Just stripped of its AAA credit rating. This should be good.

So does this mean that the world isn't going to loan us money on the 3mo at negative interest rates anymore? :rolleyes:

Toshi · Aug 5, 2011

dante said:
So does this mean that the world isn't going to loan us money on the 3mo at negative interest rates anymore?

Negative real interest rates... and that bet may pay off if deflation kicks in. Either way, I think the monetarists have been proven right, but being right will be worth precisely nil.

Westy · Aug 5, 2011

Good thing I quit my job today. I would hate to be in a situation where I have to worry about all this money ****.

Gulp...

Toshi · Aug 5, 2011

Westy said:
Good thing I quit my job today. I would hate to be in a situation where I have to worry about all this money ****.

Gulp...

Yikes/congrats. Health insurance exchanges will kick in by 2014 unless Republicans ride into to power... oh wait. Gulp, indeed. :shocked:

Westy · Aug 5, 2011

Toshi said:
Yikes/congrats. Health insurance exchanges will kick in by 2014 unless Republicans ride into to power... oh wait. Gulp, indeed.

As you may know going to grad school. My costs for a nice plan through the university are rather reasonable. An order of magnitude cheaper than I would pay through an individual plan. It is probably cheaper to attend a low cost local school to get the insurance coverage than pay for an individual plan. Of course this based on a plan that generally covers healthy young individuals and not folks like me.

My concern in just finding a job in a year or two.

Toshi · Aug 5, 2011

UW's plan is 80/20 coinsurance with a $250k cap, or at least it was during my tenure. One of my classmates got leukemia (and died from it several years later) and found these details out the hard way.

Westy · Aug 6, 2011

Toshi said:
UW's plan is 80/20 coinsurance with a $250k cap, or at least it was during my tenure. One of my classmates got leukemia (and died from it several years later) and found these details out the hard way.

That is the basic program. For a little bit more there is an option that is better than what I get at work.

Toshi · Aug 6, 2011

stevew · Aug 6, 2011

Westy said:
As you may know going to grad school.

westy = wooderson

Westy · Aug 6, 2011

The older you get, the more rules they try to get you to follow. You just got to keep on livin' man, L-I-V-I-N.

X3pilot · Aug 6, 2011

ridiculous · Aug 8, 2011

-635 points during the day and now another -200 in the after hours. Asian markets look like $hit too.

$tinkle · Aug 8, 2011

Toshi said:
Yikes/congrats. Health insurance exchanges will kick in by 2014 unless Republicans ride into to power... oh wait. Gulp, indeed.

not sure i follow: i thought we effectively have had this already, or at least, every place i've worked has offered a small number of providers: BCBS, kaiser, aetna, humana...

and can you not opt out of employer plan to pursue your own? maybe it's a state-by-state thing that would now be federal? is that what you're saying will happen by '14?

Toshi · Aug 8, 2011

$tinkle said:
not sure i follow: i thought we effectively have had this already, or at least, every place i've worked has offered a small number of providers: BCBS, kaiser, aetna, humana...

and can you not opt out of employer plan to pursue your own? maybe it's a state-by-state thing that would now be federal? is that what you're saying will happen by '14?

I'm talking about getting insurance outside of the employer-subsidized market. That market currently sucks, especially if one has a pre-existing condition.

$tinkle · Aug 8, 2011

Toshi said:
I'm talking about getting insurance outside of the employer-subsidized market. That market currently sucks, especially if one has a pre-existing condition.

i know that COBRA blows the white whale, but when i was unemployed & then a contractor we found rates that were commensurate w/ what i had before (empl subsidized). kept the same dr; saw the same specialists. co-pays were the same, too.

maybe it's drastically different for 5% of the gen pop?

ok, done w/ threadjack

Toshi · Aug 8, 2011

I pay ~$200/month out of pocket for my wife and myself. I'm pretty sure it's impossible to find insurance "on the outside" for that amount aside from the catastrophic-coverage-only plans.

Dow 8900....

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