[ridiculous]

A little hard to see but...here is my short-intermediate term puzzle piece of market speculation.

This is what I'm thinking. A possible bear flag or a channel breakout. Looking at both of my scenarios its a question of how much fuel do we add to the fire? Either way I see it as short term bullish - intermediate term bearish! I would like to see the S & P at 1040 in the coming days/weeks and then some sort of divergence and a strong rally to finish the year. But again, I'm speculating and therefore trading extremely light or intraday only until one of the patterns confirms. You should take what I think with a grain of salt, but I think there is way more downside potential than up, My $.02.


Mandown, your timing in to the market could not have been more perfect in hindsight.

 

[ridiculous]

Also, in the grand scheme of things this is what I'm speculating and where we are. Graph is a weekly chart from the March 2009 lows until the end of this calendar year. Notice how my speculation puzzle piece fits on the weekly chart?

The area in pink is a confirmed head and shoulders reversal pattern and our long term trend support line being broken. The lower horizontal line is 1040 which is my bearish target. The upper line is around 1260 ish which is the old neckline of the H&S pattern.

 

[mandown]

What is your sell px/%? You need to know this before you ever buy the stock. Know your targets, use them, and don't get greedy.

yeah, i'm definitely in noob-mistake-land for not setting that up before buying. your earlier analysis about the round-trip after-tax benefits has me reconsidering my approach, since the % gain doesn't translate into big $ gain for the numbers i'm running. almost not worth cashing in because of the extra paperwork i will end up having to do on my tax return.

Mandown, your timing in to the market could not have been more perfect in hindsight.

just buying on bad news. we will see where things end up down the road. for now, i'm playing of the insanity in the market. a year ago, you'd have heard me saying the market should drop below 10,000. evidently, the invisible-hand is being manipulated.

 

[ridiculous]

 

[dante]

That's an in-depth version of my "mom signal". So far she's been 2 for 2 on buying/selling at exactly the WRONG time.

As a note, my "Mom Indicator" just went off yesterday signaling a STRONG BUY. She has an uncanny ability to time the market, but in reverse, so selling at lows and buying at highs. This happened in 1999, 2002, 2007, etc. She called me up yesterday (after riding out the market for quite some time) in a panic that the market kept going down down down, that someone on the TV said that the market was going down to 3000-5000 and to sell everything, and just get out now with whatever you have left.

Definitely seemed like a good barometer of healthy capitulation, and might mean that a bottom is somewhere in sight? Stocks aren't necessarily cheap right now by any means, but if the average investor is throwing in the towel and just selling for whatever price they can get, an exhausted bottom might not be too far away.

She literally missed the bottom of the market by a matter of days.....

 

[dante]

What is your sell px/%? You need to know this before you ever buy the stock. Know your targets, use them, and don't get greedy.

That is if you're buying to "trade", and not to "invest". If you're investing in a strong and profitable stock (which is what it seems like you're doing), let it ride or take some profits off of the table but leave the rest to run.

(even though mandown asked about daytrading, it still seems more like buy/hold to me...)

 

[mandown]

That is if you're buying to "trade", and not to "invest". If you're investing in a strong and profitable stock (which is what it seems like you're doing), let it ride or take some profits off of the table but leave the rest to run.

(even though mandown asked about daytrading, it still seems more like buy/hold to me...)

I'm in a bit of that, but I'm curious about Day Trades. SBUX isn't a big div stock and I don't see it swelling with value, so, I think I'm mo-trading it and banking the bucks. AAPL is a bit longer hold, waiting for i5 to drop and cash in on the mo, but I don't see long term awesome without Jobs. I've started picking more div stocks, thanks in part to the advice of Joker and ridi. I figured the best way to learn was to jump in, and I happen to be lucky enough to have liquid funds in savings. It has been helpful to have some experienced voices offer up advice.

 

[dante]

I'm in a bit of that, but I'm curious about Day Trades. SBUX isn't a big div stock and I don't see it swelling with value, so, I think I'm mo-trading it and banking the bucks. AAPL is a bit longer hold, waiting for i5 to drop and cash in on the mo, but I don't see long term awesome without Jobs. I've started picking more div stocks, thanks in part to the advice of Joker and ridi. I figured the best way to learn was to jump in, and I happen to be lucky enough to have liquid funds in savings. It has been helpful to have some experienced voices offer up advice.

If you're looking at daytrading a stock like SBUX you're either going to have to trade on margin or options... Normal day-trades aren't going to even be worthwhile on something that usually moves less than a percent per day. Dividends are great buy/hold stocks, especially when there's volatility in the market, but again, that's a long-term investing strategy instead of a daily buy/sell.

 

[mandown]

That is the lesson I seem to be learning.

 

[ridiculous]

For your day trading may I suggest using some of the leveraged ETF's. Even in my small accounts I can pull in reasonable profits buying only 100 shares at a time. This leaves me with plenty of purchasing power and I don't have to deal with the greeks on the options I normally play in such high volatility times.

PAPER TRADE THESE FIRST! You will need an understanding of technical analysis before jumping in with these securities. These are not buy and hold stocks and I rarely ever hold these positions over night but... off hand I can remember:

TYH 3X Tech
TYP 3X Tech bearish (inverse) -follow technical's on the Q's , /NQ, or Nasdaq
SQQQ 3X Tech bearish (Nasdaq 100)

UPRO 3X S&P ( I do most of my analysis on the SPX so this is a vehicle of choice)
UDOW 3X No clouts in my stones Dow Jones

BGU/BGZ Bullish and Bear Large Cap
TNA/TZA Bullish and Bear Small Cap (Tracks the Rut)
FAS/FAZ Bullish and Bear Financials (I use xlf, and other finance harbingers to study before jumping in here, these guys will move!)

Im sure there is a list of leveraged stocks out there somewhere on the interwebz, but for now take a look and wet your palette.

Expect an interesting/light day with the president set to speak after hours tonight. I will be flat at 4:00 pm today.

 

[stoney]

That is the lesson I seem to be learning.

If you are watching your stocks this closely every day, you are not investing but trading rather. I look at dividends this way - they will eventually pay for the shares you bought, while providing additional invested capital in the companies you want to be invested in.

You need to set aside the majority of you investment funds for investing (90%), the rest you can trade with (10%). In NO circumstance can you replenish your trading account with funds from your investment account. If you are funding both, no more than 10% of the funds can be trading funds. Do yourself a huge favor and open a separate account for trading and roll those positions and funds into it. You should never intermix your investing and trading funds.

 

[ridiculous]

You need to set aside the majority of you investment funds for investing (90%), the rest you can trade with (10%). In NO circumstance can you replenish your trading account with funds from your investment account. If you are funding both, no more than 10% of the funds can be trading funds. Do yourself a huge favor and open a separate account for trading and roll those positions and funds into it. You should never intermix your investing and trading funds.

Truth.

I have 4 accounts

My main trading margin account- TOS
Roth IRA trading- TOS
Roth IRA Investing- Schwab
401k program from work w/ brokerage link- Fidelity.

All of my "investing" or long term positions is done in retirement accounts and the majority of my net worth is in those accounts. I could completely wipe out my trading account to zero and keep living the way I do right now. This is all in addition to 6 months worth of expenses in savings.

 

[ridiculous]

That's an in-depth version of my "mom signal". So far she's been 2 for 2 on buying/selling at exactly the WRONG time.



She literally missed the bottom of the market by a matter of days.....

yeah, i'm definitely in noob-mistake-land for not setting that up before buying. your earlier analysis about the round-trip after-tax benefits has me reconsidering my approach, since the % gain doesn't translate into big $ gain for the numbers i'm running. almost not worth cashing in because of the extra paperwork i will end up having to do on my tax return.



just buying on bad news. we will see where things end up down the road. for now, i'm playing of the insanity in the market. a year ago, you'd have heard me saying the market should drop below 10,000. evidently, the invisible-hand is being manipulated.

That candle on the /ES daily suggests things are swinging in your direction. 5 hrs to go.

 

[ridiculous]

Redone, technical trader style. Notice there are no emotional comments, everything is price and momentum based.

 

[mandown]

If you are watching your stocks this closely every day, you are not investing but trading rather. I look at dividends this way - they will eventually pay for the shares you bought, while providing additional invested capital in the companies you want to be invested in.

You need to set aside the majority of you investment funds for investing (90%), the rest you can trade with (10%). In NO circumstance can you replenish your trading account with funds from your investment account. If you are funding both, no more than 10% of the funds can be trading funds. Do yourself a huge favor and open a separate account for trading and roll those positions and funds into it. You should never intermix your investing and trading funds.

my watching daily is with an eye toward getting a feel for how things move, seeing if i want to consider getting more involved. for now, i'm starting slowly.

i've got my 401k set up for my long term investing. however, i noticed my cash funds getting to a level that didn't make sense when i looked at my total wealth. reserves for emergencies are funded, and the remaining amount in savings wasn't working hard to get me interest. i had been keeping things liquid for consideration of buying a home, but that plan is on the back burner now. investing seemed like the next step to take, with some consideration regarding more active trading.

i'm certainly seeing the need to partition off accounts to keep things straight. i have set up a trading account that has already started to look like an investment account in some ways, thus i'm already considering opening another account so i can better track investing and trading activity separately.

you guys have been helpful. it is good to hear things that i've been thinking echoed by those with more experience.

 

[mandown]

was getting ready to cash in on my HANS shares until i saw this
http://www.streetinsider.com/Rumors/Hansen+Natural+(HANS)+Jumps+On+Renewed+Takeover+Talk/6771459.html

guess i may hold on a bit longer.

what would happen if i were holding HANS and KO bought them out? is there a standard conversion formula to figure the KO shares i would get? KO seems to be a div company, though the yield isn't as high as other stocks i'd consider investing in. so i may cash in on the price spike and move my funds elsewhere.

 

[stoney]

Speculations. Take it as you will, but they are just that.

 

[ridiculous]

was getting ready to cash in on my HANS shares until i saw this
http://www.streetinsider.com/Rumors/Hansen+Natural+(HANS)+Jumps+On+Renewed+Takeover+Talk/6771459.html

guess i may hold on a bit longer.

what would happen if i were holding HANS and KO bought them out? is there a standard conversion formula to figure the KO shares i would get? KO seems to be a div company, though the yield isn't as high as other stocks i'd consider investing in. so i may cash in on the price spike and move my funds elsewhere.

Please protect yourself man. This **** is getting ugly and getting ugly quick. If we break that lower channel line on the SPX it will be EXTREMELY bearish and you will get skullf**ked by shorts if you hold your long positions. See the attached.


If that candle closes like that, you have a confirmed bear flag pattern. See my charts from 2 days ago.

I don't remember all of your positions but here is the majority of what I remember. You may want to look these patterns up on investopedia or google.


SBUX has a deteriorating ascending triangle pattern. Not terrifically bearish yet but if that diagonal line breaks be prepared for free fall.

AAPL is continuing to breakdown from a diagonal resistance line.

GOOG, more lower lows and lower highs (down trending)

Food for thought.

 

[mandown]

thanks man.

i'm out of SBUX, and was looking at blowing out of HANS today since it has been climbing. AAPL i'm holding out for the i5, but do have stop losses set for this and GOOG. i have some others that are divs that i plan to hold for that purpose (PG, GIS, INTC, UL).

looks like Obama's preaching could't stop the power of the fear over Euro makets. DOW down almost 3% with the S&P and Nasdaq close behind.

 

[ridiculous]

Yup. I put on some short positions this morning and plan to add a lot more if we break that channel line. I'm also playing with HANS now that you mentioned it, the 15 min chart just produced a sweet entry.

Lets see what euroland and the debt ceiling bring us next week.

 

[mandown]

i'm planning to play the Dead Cat on Monday once a weekend of drinking cools the Chicken Little effect of today

 

[mandown]

Thoughts on VZ? If my belief that Apple will spike after the i5 release, it seems logical to think that Verizon might share in that. However, the thing that has my attention is a high div yield, over 5.5%. I know that is a bit misleading with the current days of trading since it is based on current price relative to historic dividends. Nothing says the next round of divs won't adjust that. Though other yields I have been looking at are still in the low 4s.

 

[stoney]

Jesus man. If you are going to trade momentum, trade on technicals like Ridic. If you are going to trade on fundamentals, trade on fundamentals.

I would put good money that any price appreciation that can be had based on potential increased revenues are already priced into VZ. In theory (and it works pretty well), the price of a stock is determined by the sum of all public knowledge about the company. What you are betting on is that the professional money managers swinging millions of dollars haven't already thought of that.

Momentum - Technicals
Fundamental - Balance Sheets

 

[mandown]

Jesus man. If you are going to trade momentum, trade on technicals like Ridic. If you are going to trade on fundamentals, trade on fundamentals.

Momentum - Technicals
Fundamental - Balance Sheets

Hey, I'm new to this game. That is why I'm asking questions. I started this thread with one thing in mind, and have come to realize there are other factors to consider. My 401k is all in set-and-forget long term funds. I happen to have some liquid cash that I'm using to build a portfolio. You have convinced me that day trading isn't for me. But I'm still considering short term investments for a bit of profit, and some divs since interest on savings is not to be seen.

 

[stoney]

Day trading is bad for most people, unless you have serious cash or can lever the hell out of it (see options). Short-term trading is also highly risky. Don't forget the round costs and tax rates. Trade cost in + trade cost out + (profit * max tax rate) = Total costs.

Short-term trading is still momo trading, and you need to learn technicals. Buy 'techincal analysis' by kirkpatrick. It is the bible of techincal analysis and the primary book for the first level of the CTA designation.

 

[Krzr3000]

This is a must have as well IMO...

http://www.amazon.com/Japanese-Candlestick-Charting-Techniques-Second/dp/0735201811/ref=dp_ob_title_bk

 

[mandown]

I'm also playing with HANS now that you mentioned it, the 15 min chart just produced a sweet entry.

Some good movement today.

 

[mandown]

Thanks for the reading tips.

Joker, I appreciate all the cautions you have put out. If it helps you sleep better, I'm playing around with a small fraction of my total wealth. I have no debt(mortgage, Car, CC). I'm in a fortunate white people problem of having enough liquididty that my cash position doesn't make sense. I'm not looking to make a fortune. I am looking to see what my stomach can handle and get a feel for how the markets move. Much of the money I'm playing with is money I would have spent on bikes or music instruments, before my injury, stuff that would have only depreciated.

 

[ridiculous]

Jesus man. If you are going to trade momentum, trade on technicals like Ridic. If you are going to trade on fundamentals, trade on fundamentals.

I would put good money that any price appreciation that can be had based on potential increased revenues are already priced into VZ. In theory (and it works pretty well), the price of a stock is determined by the sum of all public knowledge about the company. What you are betting on is that the professional money managers swinging millions of dollars haven't already thought of that.

Momentum - Technicals
Fundamental - Balance Sheets

While we're talking about market makers and pricing things in, consider this: Is a Greece default priced in? I bring this up because Greece news > Anything verizon could ever do. Looking at the Euro, I'd guess it's not.

Hey, I'm new to this game. That is why I'm asking questions. I started this thread with one thing in mind, and have come to realize there are other factors to consider. My 401k is all in set-and-forget long term funds. I happen to have some liquid cash that I'm using to build a portfolio. You have convinced me that day trading isn't for me. But I'm still considering short term investments for a bit of profit, and some divs since interest on savings is not to be seen.

No such thing in my mind. Though, there are plenty of methods that require very little interaction. Hell, I've only made 2 or 3 transactions on my retirement funds since 2009. but I've averaged about 60 or so trades a month in my margin acct since then. I'm sure someone on this board will disagree with me, but in my opinion, findings, analysis etc. we ARE entering a bear market or a period of negative growth. I would have to see the S&P 500 over 1230ish to be convinced otherwise. Buy low, sell high, buy more.

Let me reiterate by reposting the big picture snap shot I put up a couple of days ago.

The EURO's 5 year weekly chart looks equally dismal.

 

[stoney]

I doubt the market is pricing it in, as we'd crossed the threshold of moral hazard more than once. The assumption is of a bailout from someone... Either way, that's a giant **** pit.

 

[mandown]

Wild times. Yesterday, we get the news that the poverty level is 1 in 6 in this country, and the market barely flinched. Today, the Greece/Euro talks start to look favorable and things start bouncing up. Traders are finding more comfort in the fact that the foreign economies may not fall as hard as they feared, than concern in the long term implications of the poverty in this country. Guess we are in a global market.

 

[stoney]

Wild times. Yesterday, we get the news that the poverty level is 1 in 6 in this country, and the market barely flinched. Today, the Greece/Euro talks start to look favorable and things start bouncing up. Traders are finding more comfort in the fact that the foreign economies may not fall as hard as they feared, than concern in the long term implications of the poverty in this country. Guess we are in a global market.

Looking at it wrong. The majority of European banks have high exposure to Greek and Spanish govt debt. If they default, the value of those securities go to zero. If suddenly they go to zero, then the banks will have to re-value that debt to such and most cannot take a loss of that scale. Many (if not most) will become immediately insolvent. If you thought Lehman was bad, imagine losing the entire European banking sector...

 

[TortugaTonta]

Selling weekly cash covered puts in C as it bounces between 25 and 30. Nice Theta.

 

[ridiculous]

Im in cash for now. F this noise.

So glad to see NFLX getting pummeled.

 

[mandown]

Was eyeing GE and wished I'd pulled the trigger yesterday. The divs looked caught my attention, but the near 3% jump today woul have been some nice mo to pocket.

It should be fun to watch things move as Europe unfolds.

 

[mandown]

Got out of HANS. I figured 13% was enough profit and it set a new record high. No point getting greedy.

 

[stoney]

Well thought out.

 

[ridiculous]

...and aapl is back to 400. Can we go back down now?

 

[mandown]

Considered selling apple too.

 

[ridiculous]

I was just reading an article on zerohedge and now my head is spinning. Can someone please translate this graphic in to layman's terms or would this be lehman's terms?