[Toshi]

Mortgage... Student debt...

Jessica's student loans are a waste of money (Masters in Clarinet Performance for a stay at home mom) but I don't know of any free medical schools in this country of ours. My state school, UW, is about as cheap as I could have done it.

And the mortgage is cheap money in the long run. I know I'm borrowing from my future self in a sense... but then I get to live in this nice house the whole way along and potentially benefit from increased value down the road.

 

[johnbryanpeters]

Jessica's student loans are a waste of money (Masters in Clarinet Performance for a stay at home mom) but I don't know of any free medical schools in this country of ours. My state school, UW, is about as cheap as I could have done it.

And the mortgage is cheap money in the long run. I know I'm borrowing from my future self in a sense... but then I get to live in this nice house the whole way along and potentially benefit from increased value down the road.

I am of course being snarky. Student loans, and cost to benefit ratio of higher education in general have evolved to be an absolute rip-off.

Current house prices and the mortgage game have evolved similarly...

 

[Toshi]

Tonight's excitement, science-style: A new test that I've come up with drastically increases specificity while maintaining sensitivity relative to current methods. In other words, it works much better, at least as tested on the medium size data set that I derived this week. This "working much better" bit is a good thing in that it's a test for a common finding (thyroid nodules and what to do with them, in particular).

I thought that this new test would work well, but this is the first time applying it on a real data set. I can spin this idea for a good number of papers and maybe a grant or two to test it prospectively with a large number of cases (the grant definitely including a new laptop, noting that I didn't pass muster for that other grant that I applied for). I've had another Good Idea in my nascent career as well (see earlier posts on MR angiography modeling in MATLAB if you're bored), and these two ideas should provide me with enough publishing fodder and focus for the eventual jump to full Professor in perhaps 5 years...

 

[Westy]

Jessica's student loans are a waste of money Masters in Clarinet Performance

Sounds like she double majored and also earned her MrS. Which is paying off nicely.

I am of course being snarky. Student loans, and cost to benefit ratio of higher education in general have evolved to be an absolute rip-off.

Current house prices and the mortgage game have evolved similarly...

If you have a plan, it can work out well. My masters paid for itself in about 3 years. But I saw a gap in knowledge that was preventing me from advancing my career that academia could quickly fill. Current employer has dumb rigid salary rules, I can look up eactly what an advanced degree will get you here. For an engineer the piece of paper alone will get you $10-$15K a year. If you actually learned something you can apply in the real world it will only help you further along.


Current housing seems absurd, but in most locations, adjusted for inflation very few regions have even rebounded to pre-crash prices.

 

[Toshi]

Public video on the facespace

https://www.facebook.com/toshimasa/posts/10103889647052921

'Tis Mariko reading a "real" book. Yes, she's actually reading it instead of reciting it from memory as she used to do.

 

[Toshi]

Audi A8 the first (SAE-defined) Level 3 autonomous vehicle on the market:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4087480-audi-beats-tesla-gm-level-3-autonomy

$100k and only good until 37 mph on divided highways, but still clearly supra-Autopilot capabilities.

Next five years will be interesting to watch. I probably will ditch the RAV4 EV around 2021 as that's when its extended warranty will be up and it shall have depreciated into the ground. (Or maybe it'll live on the street as a third vehicle if it is truly worth a pile of beans.)

2022 model year cars should hopefully give me multiple level 3 or even level 4 autonomous options.

 

[Toshi]

Tonight's excitement, science-style: A new test that I've come up with drastically increases specificity while maintaining sensitivity relative to current methods. In other words, it works much better, at least as tested on the medium size data set that I derived this week.

Corollary evidence on the frustrations of science from this same project:

My prelim data were thrown together by me in rapid fashion for an upcoming deadline, but my methods weren't rigorous (single reader/me, not blinded to the pathology outcome). This is likely sufficient for an abstract for a society prize, but not for a publication.

For a paper I need two readers blinded to pathology, with me re-reviewing cases while blinded as a third tie-breaking reader for conflicts. (The blinding won't be a farce for me since I randomized the order of the cases since my first analysis.) Therefore all progress on this exciting (IMO) project will grind to a standstill for a month or two or six as I wait for my non-hypomanic readers to read the 90 cases on their academic time...

CN: It takes a village, and the other villagers don't stay up late at night doing these things, generally.

 

[Toshi]

TIL that my rotund self + grindy climbs + 28t chainring == 0.5% chain stretch after about 400 miles of riding. That was enough to cause bad shifting last ride and intermittent badness today's ride. New chain time it is--buying through my LBS (and even paying them $5 to install it, because why not?) and then price matching via my credit card to whatever low-ball internet site has it the lowest after the fact.

 

[Toshi]

What's my price? In another thread a few days ago SM, JK, and I were discussing what one's price for giving up free time is. Well, it so happens that I'm giving up my free time for a price right now and, within this activity, gave up some more "free" time for another incentive.

Above my price/hour threshold:

- doing these voluntary 5-10 shifts, which are paid just above my equivalent hourly for my annual salary + bonus. These are a pain and prime time real estate to be relinquishing but that's why they pay.
- filling out the 5 minute survey that one sometimes gets on a Chick-Fil-A receipt for a free sandwich (so ~$3.50/5 minutes, or about $42/hr
- mowing the lawn myself, which takes about 20-40 minutes depending on whether I also trim, instead of paying a local teenager $20 + the hassle of coordinating with him. This is probably the least productive thing I do, but I like mowing the lawn and generally having it not look all ratty. (It's looking much better after actually being watered, to follow up on an earlier thread.)

Not above my price/hour threshold:

- doing drug naming surveys, which took about 20-30 minutes and paid $15 for the effort. Similar price/hr to the CFA survey but these required one to be attentive, type lots of shit, and were generally annoying
- participating in Communispace forums, which would require ~20 minutes of activity per month in exchange for a $5 or $10 Amazon gift card. This again required thought and effort. Not worth it at this price point.

 

[Adventurous]

TIL that my rotund self + grindy climbs + 28t chainring == 0.5% chain stretch after about 400 miles of riding. That was enough to cause bad shifting last ride and intermittent badness today's ride. New chain time it is--buying through my LBS (and even paying them $5 to install it, because why not?) and then price matching via my credit card to whatever low-ball internet site has it the lowest after the fact.

Good move. I'd pay $5 not to have whatever goop chains ship with on my hands.

 

[Toshi]

Rental car review:

2016 Nissan Quest SV. 16k miles, rented at Alamo HNL.

Pros:

- good turning radius
- very low wind and engine noise, including fake gears on the CVT at full throttle to avoid drone
- adequate interior room, even in third row
- funky JDM slab sided looks

Cons:

- very high load floor, just like an SUV: this greatly diminishes the case for a minivan
- road noise high on imperfect pavement
- CVT calibrated for too aggressive behavior on first throttle tip in
- mousy gray cloth interior looks like shit after 16k miles
- sliding doors that don't open as wide as their respective orifices, making kid-loading more of a pain than it should be

Verdict: better than the Kia Sedona in rental grade trim but I'd frankly rather have a rented Town and Country instead, and that's pretty damning.

 

[Toshi]

I have a buyer lined up for my Land Cruiser, whenever I get a replacement and thereby get around to actually selling it. $21k including both sets of wheels. It's a former two doors down neighbor who admired it when it used to be within his view.

Of course, Pacifica (Plugin) Hybrid ordering is still not possible due to the recall and stop-sale. Hmph.

 

[Toshi]

 

[Toshi]

I went climbing today. Yuna is too small and doesn't really get it. Mariko liked it but again couldn't climb much on the real walls. Jessica did ok and had fun. I climbed a 5.7 (marked generously, easier than New York marked 5.6s) and failed at a 5.9.

I'm not sure we'll be there too often while the kids are still young...

Related: Auto-belay devices are really weird. The half a second of freefall feels like a loose traditional belay. Kind of unsettling and unnerving. We didn't get our non-auto belay certification since Jessica didn't remember her knots and neither of us felt super confident in our actual technique.

 

[Toshi]

I feel very wronged by the world the past few days. Not sure how much of this is from objective badness (and there has been some) and how much from me being a grumpypuss.

In related news, 2018 Pacifica Hybrid ordering is now open. Recall remedy expected Sept 25 so delivery in November? Yet my wife is all taciturn regarding it, because it implies kid 3 to her and she's mysteriously mopey regarding that whole topic. I think I'll do it anyway and place an order, as with the tax credits it has very little risk to me and it certainly could cart our two kids around well.

 

[Adventurous]

I feel very wronged by the world the past few days. Not sure how much of this is from objective badness (and there has been some) and how much from me being a grumpypuss.

In related news, 2018 Pacifica Hybrid ordering is now open. Recall remedy expected Sept 25 so delivery in November? Yet my wife is all taciturn regarding it, because it implies kid 3 to her and she's mysteriously mopey regarding that whole topic. I think I'll do it anyway and place an order, as with the tax credits it has very little risk to me and it certainly could cart our two kids around well.

I'm with ya, though it's been more like a few years that I seem to be running on a karma deficit. Not sure what I did to upset the balance but I try to stay optimistic that I'll be back in the black some day.

 

[Westy]

I'm with ya, though it's been more like a few years that I seem to be running on a karma deficit. Not sure what I did to upset the balance but I try to stay optimistic that I'll be back in the black some day.

I am sure there is some Syrian refugee or child slaving away in a Chinese Apple factory whose heart would just bleed for you guys if they only knew your suffering.

 

[Toshi]

I am sure there is some Syrian refugee or child slaving away in a Chinese Apple factory whose heart would just bleed for you guys if they only knew your suffering.

The hedonic treadmill is real.

 

[Adventurous]

I am sure there is some Syrian refugee or child slaving away in a Chinese Apple factory whose heart would just bleed for you guys if they only knew your suffering.

Quit cluttering up our self pity party with tales of those worse off.

 

[Serial Midget]

I was born dirt poor during the depression to share croppers in Alabama. While this lead to cocain and alcohol addiction it was also the source of my talent and courage. I am sure there are grammar errors in this post but it's all good because I dropped out of the 9th grade to become a punk rocker. Karma, it appears, is repetitive.

 

[Serial Midget]

Oh... good news on the MiniVan. My Subaru is just 4 inches and a sliding door short of being a minivan.

 

[Toshi]

Oh... good news on the MiniVan. My Subaru is just 4 inches and a sliding door short of being a minivan.

Your Outback is only 2" shorter than my Land Cruiser. Modern minivans are big, though: the Pacifica has a solid foot in length on the Land Cruiser.

Good thing it has a surround view camera system to park it accurately in the garage. I confirmed just now that the EVSE cable will be able to reach both cars' charging ports.

 

[Serial Midget]

Your Outback is only 2" shorter than my Land Cruiser. Modern minivans are big, though: the Pacifica has a solid foot in length on the Land Cruiser.

Good thing it has a surround view camera system to park it accurately in the garage. I confirmed just now that the EVSE cable will be able to reach both cars' charging ports.

I do not have surround camera but do find the back up camera useful, I also "tested" the automatic braking system which also works great. Even though I liked the sportiness of the old wagon I do appreciate the safety features of the new one. I am not ready to commit to a cord yet...

 

[Toshi]

Wife-bot got less mopey, so that's good, I guess. Still have no idea WTH prompted this in the first place. Magnets?!

Not visible in this photo is that I got the Taga up on 2 wheels. It's kind of tippy. Good thing the electric is good for only 15 mph or so. I got it to 20 mph but with a frantic probably 140 rpm cadence.

 

[Westy]

Wife-bot got less mopey, so that's good, I guess. Still have no idea WTH prompted this in the first place. Magnets?!

Not visible in this photo is that I got the Taga up on 2 wheels. It's kind of tippy. Good thing the electric is good for only 15 mph or so. I got it to 20 mph but with a frantic probably 140 rpm cadence.

View attachment 126090

Personally I don't get it, but as I understand, people on occasion have irrational emotions.

Mysteries of the hominid.

 

[Serial Midget]

I approve of all things pedal and, since your wife is in a good mood, request that you get an adult size Big Wheel and let me know if they are worth it.

Also questions aboUT the brakes on the Taga, one for each front wheel, non on the back?

 

[Toshi]

I approve of all things pedal and, since your wife is in a good mood, request that you get an adult size Big Wheel and let me know if they are worth it.

Also questions aboUT the brakes on the Taga, one for each front wheel, non on the back?

Mmm electric big wheel. 30 mph on the street with cars would be fun.

Discs on each front wheel and a disc on the rear as well. Barely visible here: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10103946279436171&set=pcb.10103946279565911&type=3&theater

 

[Adventurous]

Mmm electric big wheel. 30 mph on the street with cars would be fun.

Discs on each front wheel and a disc on the rear as well. Barely visible here: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10103946279436171&set=pcb.10103946279565911&type=3&theater

I'm assuming both front discs are controlled from the same lever? You could engage in some serious shenanigans if not.

 

[Toshi]

I'm assuming both front discs are controlled from the same lever? You could engage in some serious shenanigans if not.

Yes, both twinned off of the one lever. That would be fun to have control. Probably best to have such a thing given that the box will have kids in it most of the time.

I did already verify that I can ride around a curve (with no kids) with the inside wheel consistently lifted, and at rest I can unbalance it enough to get that wheel up as well.

 

[Westy]

Yes, both twinned off of the one lever. That would be fun to have control. Probably best to have such a thing given that the box will have kids in it most of the time.

I did already verify that I can ride around a curve (with no kids) with the inside wheel consistently lifted, and at rest I can unbalance it enough to get that wheel up as well.

Can you manual it or ride a wheelie?

 

[Toshi]

Not visible in this photo is that I got the Taga up on 2 wheels. It's kind of tippy. Good thing the electric is good for only 15 mph or so. I got it to 20 mph but with a frantic probably 140 rpm cadence.

More thoughts on riding it:

The electric assist is triggered by a cadence sensor. The assistance level appears to be binary, the output just scaled by the selected level (0/off and then 1-6). This leads to an odd surge of power after about 1/2 a crank stroke when getting started.

On flat ground level 1 or 2 with the kids loaded leads to a nice compromise between pedal effort, reasonable cadence speed, and achieved speed. With higher assistance levels there's no resistance in the pedals as the motor is doing the work and the cadence (to keep the assist juices flowing--you stop and it stops) becomes unnaturally quick with the fixed gearing.

If it sounds like it kind of is a bodgy experience then you'd be spot on. This reinforces to me that electric bikes should really have torque sensors. That would make for a much more natural feeling experience on this trike-thing, and would allow natural scaling up of the assistance on hills.

 

[Toshi]

Blue is 1 hour driving. Light green is 5 hours.Times estimated for leaving at 4 PM on a Friday.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/national/escape-time/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_rush-hour-340pm:homepage/story&utm_term=.a581cd87b724

 

[Adventurous]

Insert Lenawee video here ____________________________

I need watching material here now that it's the work week. Enjoy the ride?

 

[Toshi]

Insert Lenawee video here ____________________________

I need watching material here now that it's the work week. Enjoy the ride?

Here be thar video

I enjoyed the ride, yes. Bonked and started cramping up on the second climb and ended up walking much of it with stoney. Lenawee itself is a great trail: good riding, of course, but the views and general feeling of being above treeline are just amazing. The pucker factor on the first exposed traversing section is kind of fun, too–no adjusting the sunglasses and looking off the trail.

It's too bad one can't do it as a straight up loop from the A basin base, ending there as well. The second descent was fun, but to me wasn't worth the ~9? miles to get there from where Lenawee kicks one out on Montezuma Rd.

 

[Serial Midget]

Back to the kid thing... back in the early 70s my dad had a Kawasaki 500, he taught me to lean with the bike while riding on the back. I learned pretty quick that the better I got the faster he would take corners. If your girls have the need for speed... you could have a lot of fun.

Do your girls react with tears or laughter when they fall or crash into something?

 

[Toshi]

Yuna loves skiing while attached to me. She craves speed. Mariko is very excited to go mountain biking, but also cries when she gets the most minor of injuries. (At least she always asks for me when she gets hurt–I give better snuggles, apparently.)

I think both will eventually be riding with me.

 

[Toshi]

My kids are cute: true story.

Their Halloween costumes arrived today and they couldn't wait to try 'em on.

 

[Toshi]

Don't switch to REPAYE if you're doing PSLF as a physician! (Alt title: I did a financial oops.)

Here's the tale:

I work at a state institution. I was planning on getting loan forgiveness through Public Service Loan Forgiveness: make 120 qualifying payments while working for a non-profit or the government and the remaining loan balance is forgiven. Per the horse's mouth: "Qualifying repayment plans include all of the income-driven repayment plans (plans that base your monthly payment on your income)."

My mistake was in switching plans. I was on IBR, which caps at a 10 year rate. This was fine. When my loan servicer was switched when I started certifying my qualifying employment, however, I made the mistake of picking "standard repayment." For loans of my size standard repayment is 20-25 years and thus isn't PSLF eligible. Once switched out of IBR the only option to switch back in at that point was REPAYE, iirc (or maybe I picked it explicitly, which is even more stupid in retrospect).

I knew that REPAYE had no cap: if one's income is above a certain threshold the income-based payment is actually greater than at a 10 year rate. I also knew that if one didn't certify one's income then it'd revert to that familiar 10 year rate. With me so far?

The problem is that REPAYE without income certification is considered a different payment plan, the Alternative Repayment Plan... and this ARP is NOT PSLF eligible! This was not clear at all to me from the various REPAYE/PSLF sources on the web, but my loan servicer's latest message to me makes this very clear:

If you do not recertify [your income], you will be placed on the Alternative Repayment plan. Payments made while on the Alternative Repayment plan will not count as qualifying payments toward Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF).

Therefore my choices now are:

1) Recertify my income and pay supra-10 year amounts under REPAYE, which will keep me eligible for PSLF but which will erode all (almost all?) of potential forgiveness.
2) Don't recertify my income under REPAYE, be put in ARP instead, and not be eligible for PSLF.
3) Refinance privately, as I've done previously for Jessica's loans. This would get me from my current 4.25% to 2.39% or so.

Looks like I threw away all of the potential benefits of PSLF through that one mistake when my loan servicer changed...

 

[Toshi]

Option 3 submitted. Refinancing down to 5 years @ 2.39% variable, like my wife's loans. So in 2022 we'll be done with student loan debt (there's another, small fixed rate loan of hers that I'll dispatch in the next year or two). Current car note will be done in 2021, I believe. That'll just leave the mortgage (refinance in 2022?) and the note for the pending minivan.

Debt, be gone! (After I refinance out of my Federal loans per the above post the highest effective rate debt will be the small fixed rate loan at 2.875% so it's not like it's usurious. It's just a pain for cash flow, which I buffer to/from my taxable account.)

 

[Adventurous]

Option 3 submitted. Refinancing down to 5 years @ 2.39% variable, like my wife's loans. So in 2022 we'll be done with student loan debt (there's another, small fixed rate loan of hers that I'll dispatch in the next year or two). Current car note will be done in 2021, I believe. That'll just leave the mortgage (refinance in 2022?) and the note for the pending minivan.

Debt, be gone! (After I refinance out of my Federal loans per the above post the highest effective rate debt will be the small fixed rate loan at 2.875% so it's not like it's usurious. It's just a pain for cash flow, which I buffer to/from my taxable account.)

Who'd you get a 2.39% through? I'm currently sitting at 5.5% on the small balance I have left, I'm thinking I can do better.