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warning : we're heading to a recession

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,180
17
TN
Why don't schools just offer a class on banking, budgeting and personal finance-- oh, then there wouldn't be as many sheeple spending money on what the TV tells them is good for them (even if it's bad for them and made by workers that will take away their jobs)
I think most schools do offer these things.
 

SPINTECK

Turbo Monkey
Oct 16, 2005
1,370
0
abc
Here's a question, then I'll shut-up.

Do you think Politicians are engineering the economy and jobs to be at their worst so the next president can say 3 years later:
"The economy has rebounded and jobs are plentiful thanks to my programs"
??>?
 

LordOpie

MOTHER HEN
Oct 17, 2002
21,022
3
Denver
Why don't schools just offer a class on banking, budgeting and personal finance...
Agreed.

Intelligent design should not be taught anywhere but an elective theology class. Evolution should be saved for college.

Grades 1-12 should be used to build the brain and teach fundamental life skills. People who got into mortgage trouble from ignorance would be better served taking such a class instead of world history.

Re-prioritize!
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
Here's a question, then I'll shut-up.

Do you think Politicians are engineering the economy and jobs to be at their worst so the next president can say 3 years later:
"The economy has rebounded and jobs are plentiful thanks to my programs"
??>?
doubt it.

there is far too much money in the market for that and the President isnt that importaint...

however, i have no doubt there are market manipulations by the money men to make more money.
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
burly, you're axing questions to (among others) someone who has lost almost $20k in the last 2 days, and still doesn't give a ****.

bet the other way.
i actually managed not to lose anything this week even finished up about 0.9%...

Monday will be a good day to scarf up some deals and make some coin next week. I am usually go long but in this market short is where it's at... get in and get out... wait then get in again.. takes a lot of work tho.
 

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,180
17
TN
Agreed.

Intelligent design should not be taught anywhere but an elective theology class. Evolution should be saved for college.

Grades 1-12 should be used to build the brain and teach fundamental life skills. People who got into mortgage trouble from ignorance would be better served taking such a class instead of world history.

Re-prioritize!
Do you think "education" really makes a difference? People max out their credit cards, not because they aren't educated enough to know that it's a poor financial decision, but because they're impulsively materialistic and without foresight. Same goes with borrowing for a home. People just want the ****ing house. It's a values/integrity issue more than one of education, IMO.
 

3D.

Monkey
Feb 23, 2006
899
0
Chinafornia USA
i actually managed not to lose anything this week even finished up about 0.9%...

Monday will be a good day to scarf up some deals and make some coin next week. I am usually go long but in this market short is where it's at... get in and get out... wait then get in again.. takes a lot of work tho.
like I mentioned before when you where talking about pulling out... if I had it, I'd put it in the bullion... fvck the nyse, it's failed
http://www.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUSN1439998920080314
 

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,180
17
TN
While "we" have some CC debt, it is the student loans that are scary. I have heard rumblings that a "student loan crisis" is on the horizon to mimic the housing one.
 

3D.

Monkey
Feb 23, 2006
899
0
Chinafornia USA
While "we" have some CC debt, it is the student loans that are scary. I have heard rumblings that a "student loan crisis" is on the horizon to mimic the housing one.
my brother has been fearing a similar scenario, he's sitting on about 35k from his ucsd loans... if the rates on it rise, he says it will be very difficult to make the payments. there not supposed to rise, but nowadays, who can tell
 

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
6
While "we" have some CC debt, it is the student loans that are scary. I have heard rumblings that a "student loan crisis" is on the horizon to mimic the housing one.
f'ing affirmative action.

that's right, i said it.
 

BurlyShirley

Rex Grossman Will Rise Again
Jul 4, 2002
19,180
17
TN
my brother has been fearing a similar scenario, he's sitting on about 35k from his ucsd loans... if the rates on it rise, he says it will be very difficult to make the payments. there not supposed to rise, but nowadays, who can tell
Another area where I don't fully understand things: How is it that raising rates to a level that a great number of people will inevitably default is a reasonable action?
 

LordOpie

MOTHER HEN
Oct 17, 2002
21,022
3
Denver
Another area where I don't fully understand things: How is it that raising rates to a level that a great number of people will inevitably default is a reasonable action?
Student loans are exempt from bankruptcy. You have to pay them back eventually, while interest still grows.
 

ire

Turbo Monkey
Aug 6, 2007
6,196
4
Student loans are exempt from bankruptcy. You have to pay them back eventually, while interest still grows.
Yup, they are one of the debts that you really can't get rid of (unless you die). With regards to rates, I believe (I could be wrong) that loans issued before Congress passed the revamp for student loans can have their rates increased after you leave school (assuming you don't consolidate).
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,329
7,745
when i consolidated my student loans a year or two back it was at a fixed rate iirc. 4.375% fixed for the consolidated portion, 6 and change% for the unconsolidated bit. $111k total as of today, ugh.
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
Barton Biggs Expects 1,000-Point Gain in Dow Average (Update2)
By Brian Sullivan and Michael Patterson

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- The decline in U.S. stocks is ``way overdone'' and the Dow Jones Industrial Average may rally 1,000 points, investor Barton Biggs said.

``We're in a financial panic,'' Biggs said during a telephone interview with Bloomberg Television from New York. ``We're setting up for a really big rally. I don't mean three or four hundred points on the Dow, I mean 1,000 points on the Dow. I don't know if we're going to get it next week or the week after. But this thing has gotten crazy and is overdone.''

Biggs, a former Morgan Stanley strategist who now runs the $1.5 billion hedge fund Traxis Partners LLC, said stock markets from Germany to Hong Kong may bottom out soon after tumbling this year. Biggs's prediction in March 2007 that U.S. stocks were near a low preceded a 16 percent rally in the Dow average during the next four months. His forecast that the Dow would climb as much as 19 percent in 2007 overshot its actual gain by almost 13 percentage points.

``We're at a really crucial point,'' Biggs said. ``This is a time to be buying stocks around the world and not to be selling them.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3srM5UWs8NQ&refer=home
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
Is the dollar is set to rally big time???

Late last week, we heard a lot of comments from various people including Pres Bush. The one thing they kept saying was, "I'm supportive of a strong dollar".

Some folks are speculating that a concerted effort by the various CBs to strengthen the dollar is about to happen. They can try to rally the dollar by buying it or cutting interest rates.... if that is true, it's good time to stay out of the international markets...
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
i beat a retreat to gov securities and bond funds at the end of Thus.. but i think i am going all in on the S&P 500 and the Wilshire 4500 funds for Mon...


should be a wild ride next week...
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
bears sterns down 44%

no, that's not a pinkbike number

down 47% now.. pretty much has no where to go now but up.

Bear Stearns (NYSE:BSC - News) plunged more than 47% after needing to be bailed out by JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM - News), with a little help from the Fed. BSC was experiencing such difficulty that it couldn't wait to borrow from the Fed on March 27, instead having to turn to JPMorgan Chase, who borrowed from the Fed. JPM's Short Term PowerRating is 5.
 

dante

Unabomber
Feb 13, 2004
8,807
9
looking for classic NE singletrack
$2/share for Bear is 1/2 of what their building alone in NYC is worth. What's worse, is that 30% of Bear is owned by the employees... when will people learn NOT to keep a vast majority of their savings/401k money in one company, especially that they're employed by??? Did they not learn from the whole ENRON debacle?? :banghead:
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
$2/share for Bear is 1/2 of what their building alone in NYC is worth. What's worse, is that 30% of Bear is owned by the employees... when will people learn NOT to keep a vast majority of their savings/401k money in one company, especially that they're employed by??? Did they not learn from the whole ENRON debacle?? :banghead:
OUCH!!! :twitch:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article3558485.ece

JOE LEWIS, the secretive British billionaire, has lost an estimated $800m in the collapse of the American investment bank Bear Stearns.

The 71-year-old currency trading tycoon, who runs his empire from the Bahamas, holds almost 10% of the bank's shares. Bear’s shares fell 40% on Friday to $27, after it secured a 28-day credit lifeline to stave off collapse.
 

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
6
my biggest holding (HP) is actually up 2 pts from teh open. mcDeez & lifecell haven't recovered (yet).

every time i get ready to pounce on sbux for a fire-sale, they dip even lower. they're prime to be bought, but by whom? P&G?
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
my biggest holding (HP) is actually up 2 pts from teh open. mcDeez & lifecell haven't recovered (yet).

every time i get ready to pounce on sbux for a fire-sale, they dip even lower. they're prime to be bought, but by whom? P&G?


I thought sbux was gonna be a good buy at $25.. buy as you say... just gets cheaper and cheaper..

Is the basement sub $10? Could be the next Apple..
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
Below is a list of primary dealers who will be able to borrow directly from the Fed's new program announced Sunday:

BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
Banc of America Securities LLC
Barclays Capital Inc.
Bear, Stearns & Co., Inc.
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Countrywide Securities Corporation
Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
Daiwa Securities America Inc.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein Securities LLC.
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Greenwich Capital Markets, Inc.
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
J. P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Lehman Brothers Inc.
Merrill Lynch Government Securities Inc.
Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
UBS Securities LLC.
 

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
6
i'm usually long, but i'm going to lock in expected gains toward the end of the trading day tomorrow & pay off the car.

this is thparta
 

SkaredShtles

Michael Bolton
Sep 21, 2003
65,741
12,762
In a van.... down by the river
Below is a list of primary dealers who will be able to borrow directly from the Fed's new program announced Sunday:

BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
Banc of America Securities LLC
Barclays Capital Inc.
Bear, Stearns & Co., Inc.
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Countrywide Securities Corporation
Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
Daiwa Securities America Inc.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein Securities LLC.
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Greenwich Capital Markets, Inc.
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
J. P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Lehman Brothers Inc.
Merrill Lynch Government Securities Inc.
Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
UBS Securities LLC.
I can't believe SkaredSh1tless Enterprises isn't on the list. :disgust1:
 

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
6
"flashback" (4 trading days ago)
Jim Cramer said:
Dear Jim: Should I be worried about Bear Stearns in terms of liquidity and get my money out of there? --Peter

Cramer says: “No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble. If anything, they’re more likely to be taken over. Don’t move your money from Bear.”
i've only taken mental notes on his predictions a couple times, and while he may be smart & successful, he's never correct on sure things.

wonder if he's out of a job today? probably not; he was half right.
 

N8 v2.0

Not the sharpest tool in the shed
Oct 18, 2002
11,003
149
The Cleft of Venus
Bear Stearns - DOWN 84.06%
National City - DOWN 42.85%
CIT Group -.......DOWN 27.56%
Lehman Bros - DOWN 20.28%


http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/17/magazines/fortune/investing/Tully_WallStIsBroken.fortune/index.htm

Today, the magic is fading fast. It's time to step back and analyze how financial firms actually operate.

The truth is that they've been relying on a highly-flawed business model for years. Put simply, Wall Street firms used towering leverage to make tons of money in a long-running bull market that blatantly underpriced risk. At the same time, they handed a huge chunk of the gains to employees in the form of excessive pay.
 

$tinkle

Expert on blowing
Feb 12, 2003
14,591
6
do you realize thursday close for BSC was 57.22, and today it's 4.81?

that's a full order of magnitude in 2 trading days.
 

ohio

The Fresno Kid
Nov 26, 2001
6,649
24
SF, CA
do you realize thursday close for BSC was 57.22, and today it's 4.81?

that's a full order of magnitude in 2 trading days.
And from 150 a year ago.

Imagine your a 50-something manager at BSC with all your savings/retirement dutifully tied up in BSC stock and options. Your $15M nest egg just dropped to $500k (which is better than the $200k it was worth when JPM bought you yesterday).