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Toshi

butthole powerwashing evangelist
Oct 23, 2001
39,371
8,464
Got my COVID antibody test drawn at Quest this afternoon. One tiger top 8.5 mL tube, so probably 6 mL of blood donated to the cause. Easy peasy.

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Toshi

butthole powerwashing evangelist
Oct 23, 2001
39,371
8,464
Ok, so I was able to round up some performance data for the two tests Quest uses, Abbott and EUROIMMUN.

Per UW Abbott's test is 100% sensitive and 99.9% specific. Per Abbott it is 91% sensitive and 99.6% specific. I went with 91% sens and 99.9% spec for my calculations––UW's specificity data was with a huge number of samples so I trust that.

Per a preprint floating out there EUROIMMUN's test is 90% sensitive and 93% specific.

Sound similar-ish? In the setting of low prevalence conditions this difference in test performance makes for some drastically different positive and negative predictive values: whether you actually have the disease if you test positive or negative, respectively, the real question people want to know the answer to.

The other data one needs are my estimates of true COVID antibody prevalence. I used 1.1% for CO (from Gov Polis's recent presentation), 3% for CA (which is likely a bit generous, but I digress), and 15% for NY.

CO Abbott PPV 91.0%, NPV 99.9%
CO EUROIMMUN PPV 12.5% (!!!), NPV 99.9%

CA Abbott PPV 96.6%, NPV 99.7%
CA EUROIMMUN PPV 28.5%, NPV 99.7%

NY Abbott PPV 99.4%, NPV 98.4%
NY EUROIMMUN PPV 69.4%, NPV 98.1%

So in a low prevalence state you have a very low chance of actually having COVID antibodies with a positive EUROIMMUN test result! (Abbott's performance is good enough that you actually likely have antibodies.)

In any state, on the other hand, if you test negative you have a very high chance of actually not having COVID antibodies.
 

Muddy

ancient crusty bog dude
Jul 7, 2013
2,032
908
Free Soda Refills at Fuddruckers
WH Administration appears going about the whole nine yards as far as murky intel relating to Covid, China and point of origin. Too bad it's fodder and too bad he's with zero credibility within the intelligence community. A mole making a mole hole. ...I'd like to think we'll always have Paris but, Jeff Bezos recently lost his fight there as provider of butter churns and other non-essential hardgoods.
Have to have Amazon's blowout sale of Stormy Daniels comedy club tour DVD's, MAGA Hats & Personal Coleman's at a later date.
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
87,955
26,324
media blackout

Adventurous

Starshine Bro
Mar 19, 2014
10,737
9,692
Crawlorado
Hmm, I wonder if the drive to get employees back into the office while maintaining social distancing will force employers to kill the oft maligned open office pipe dream. I, for one, am very much in favor of this.

BUILD THOSE WALLS!
 

6thElement

Schrodinger's Immigrant
Jul 29, 2008
16,839
14,322
let no tragedy go unexploited:

Where's the guillotine emoji?
 

maxyedor

<b>TOOL PRO</b>
Oct 20, 2005
5,496
3,141
In the bathroom, fighting a battle
I think this probably should have been accompanied by a bit more info. Are we talking about a guy who had one puff of the devils lettuce and died because of Covid, or are we talking about a pound and a half of heroine straight into his heart?
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TN

Hey baby, want a hot dog?
Jul 9, 2002
14,301
1,353
Jimtown, CO
that article just needed to be a couple sentences.

"“since I can smell a fart through a mask, there's no point in wearing a mask to protect me against viruses” is like securing a medieval castle with a gate to keep out invading horsemen, 8/9
but arguing that because roaches can still enter that there is no point in having a gate. Clearly you have not considered that the horseman is the greater threat."
 

TN

Hey baby, want a hot dog?
Jul 9, 2002
14,301
1,353
Jimtown, CO
During the corn teen I have decided to learn about facebook marketing. I still suck at it.
Have only sold 3 of these 568 views & my FB ad was viewes 4,600+ times, with 360 engagements.
I figured this would sell better rn...